Kết quả bước đầu dự báo tổ hợp sóng biển tại Việt Nam

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Tác giả: Mạnh Hà Bùi, Đình Chiến Đỗ, Bá Thủy Nguyễn

Ngôn ngữ: Vie

Ký hiệu phân loại: 627 Hydraulic engineering

Thông tin xuất bản: Khí tượng Thủy Văn 2021

Mô tả vật lý: 45301

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 395332

Thêm vào giỏ Liên kết toàn văn

Thông tin dự báo xác suất ứng với các khoảng độ cao sóng rất có ý nghĩa trong công tác tìm kiếm cứu nạn cũng như các hoạt động trên biển và tại vùng ven biển. Khi sử dụng hệ thống dự báo tổ hợp sóng biển chúng ta có thể đưa ra những thông tin dự báo độ cao sóng trung bình tổ hợp, cực trị độ cao sóng và xác suất ứng với các khoảng độ cao sóng khác nhau. Trong nghiên cứu này, hiệu chỉnh mô hình SWAN tính sóng trong gió mùa và trong bão Kaemi (2000) được thực hiện dựa trên việc điều chỉnh hệ số ma sát đáy tính theo công thức JONSWAP (Cfjon) để lựa chọn hệ số ma sát đáy phù hợp. Kết quả kiểm nghiệm mô hình tính sóng trong điều kiện thời tiết bình thường và trong gió mùa cho thấy độ cao sóng hiệu dụng tính toán xu hướng thiên cao so với quan trắc. Sai số tuyệt đối trung bình khi tính sóng trong gió mùa tây nam là 0,38m và trong gió mùa đông bắc là 0,52m. Biên độ trung bình của sai số tính toán sóng trong gió mùa dao động từ 0,55-0,76m và trong thời tiết tốt là 0,49m. Nhằm mục tiêu áp dụng trong nghiệp vụ tại Trung tâm Dự báo khí tượng thủy văn quốc gia, quy trình vận hành hệ thống dự báo tổ hợp sóng biển đã được xây dựng. Những kết quả bước đầu thử nghiệm hệ thống dự báo tổ hợp sóng biển trong bão Damrey tháng 12/2017 đổ bộ vào Nam Trung Bộ với trường gió từ hệ thống dự báo tổ hợp 50 thành phần của Trung tâm Dự báo thời tiết hạn vừa Châu Âu (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF)được thực hiện., Tóm tắt tiếng anh, The information on the probability of wave heights is very important in search and rescue tasks as well as activities at sea and in coastal areas. With an ensemble predict system of waves, we can provide predictions of mean, max or min ensemble wave heights, and probabilities for different wave heights. In this study, the adjustment of SWAN model to simulate waves during monsoons and typhoon Kaemi (2000) is based on the adjustment of the coefficient of bottom friction calculated using the formula JONSWAP (Cfjon) to choose the best coefficient of friction. The results of the wave model validation in normal weather conditions and monsoon show that the wave heights are higher compared to the observation. The average absolute error in southwest monsoon is 0.38m and in northeast monsoon is 0.52 m. The average amplitude of the error in the monsoon ranges from 0.55 to 0.76 m and in good weather is 0.49 m. For the purpose of applying this on the operational forecasting at the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the operating process of the ensemble forecasting system has been built. The initial experimental results of the ensemble wave forecasting system during Typhoon Damrey in December 2017 landing in the Southern Central of Vietnam with the wind field from the 50 component ensemble atmospheric forecasting system from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is implemented.

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