Đánh giá tính dễ bị tổn thương do biến đổi khí hậu - Nghiên cứu điển hình tại tỉnh Tây Ninh

0 Người đánh giá. Xếp hạng trung bình 0

Tác giả: Lê Ngọc Tuấn

Ngôn ngữ: Vie

Ký hiệu phân loại: 628.9 Other branches of sanitary and municipal engineering

Thông tin xuất bản: Khí tượng Thủy văn 2023

Mô tả vật lý: 49-65

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 398321

Thêm vào giỏ Liên kết toàn văn

Đánh giá tính dễ bị tổn thương (DBTT) do biến đổi khí hậu (BĐKH) ở quy mô cấp tỉnh, thí điểm tại tỉnh Tây Ninh đến năm 2030. Trên cơ sở điều tra, khảo sát, tham vấn chuyên gia, phương pháp chỉ số và kỹ thuật GIS, tác động tiềm tàng của BĐKH (PI) được đánh giá thông qua khả năng phơi nhiễm (E) và tính nhạy cảm (S) của hệ thống. Kết quả đánh giá tổng hợp mức độ (tức trị số PI) và phạm vi (tức diện tích có PI lớn) chỉ ra mối quan tâm tại Trảng Bàng, Châu Thành, Bến Cầu, Tân Biên và Tân Châu. Tiếp sau đó, khả năng thích ứng (KNTU) với BĐKH (AC) phân theo khu vực, nguồn lực và đối tượng được đánh giá tổng hợp thông qua nguồn nhân lực, tài chính, vật chất và thể chế. Từ đó, tính DBTT do BĐKH (V) được chỉ ra trong mối quan hệ với các thách thức hay rào cản liên quan đến E, S, AC của hệ thống. Chỉ số V hiện mức trung bình thấp (cao nhất tại Trảng Bàng, Bến Cầu), chi phối chủ yếu bởi AC và E. Xét đến năm 2030, để cải thiện tình trạng DBTT, tăng cường hiệu quả ứng phó BĐKH tại tỉnh Tây Ninh, đòi hỏi gia tăng AC tối thiểu 1/2 mức kì vọng, theo đó, đầu tư phát triển các nguồn lực thích ứng nên được ưu tiên, tiếp sau là những giải pháp đối phó với các điều kiện bất lợi của khí hậu., Tóm tắt tiếng anh, The study aimed to assess vulnerability to climate change sd at provincial scale - pilot in Tay Ninh province until 2030. Based on survey, investigation, expert consultation, index methods and GIS technique, potential impacts of climate change (PI) were assessed through exposure (E) and sensitivity (S) of the system. The combined assessment results of level (i.e. PI value) and scope (i.e. large PI area) indicated concerns in Trang Bang, Chau Thanh, Ben Cau, Tan Bien, and Tan Chau. Next, the adaptive capacity to climate change (AC) by region, resource, and object was assessed synthetically through human, financial, material, and institutional resources. Subsequnetly, the vulnerability to climate change (V) was shown in relation to the challenges or barriers of E, S, AC of the system. V index was currently at low-medium (highest in Trang Bang, Ben Cau), mainly dominated by AC and E. By 2030, to improve the situation of disaster recovery, enhance the effectiveness of climate change response in Tay Ninh province, it would require an increase in AC by at least 1/2 of the expected level. Accordingly, investment into development of adaptive resources should be prioritized, followed by solutions to cope with adverse climate conditions.

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