Điều hành chính sách linh hoạt trong bối cảnh thách thức vượt xa dự kiến

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Tác giả: Nguyễn Đình Giang

Ngôn ngữ: Vie

Ký hiệu phân loại: 330 Economics

Thông tin xuất bản: Chứng khoán Việt Nam 2023

Mô tả vật lý: 39-41

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 400792

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Tóm tắt
Chủ đề

Tổng cục Thống kê công bố tăng trưởng kinh tế trong quý I/2023 ước đạt 3,32% so với cùng kỳ năm 2022, thấp hơn kịch bản 5,6% tại Nghị quyết 01/NQ-CP của Chính phủ về nhiệm vụ, giải pháp chủ yếu thực hiện Kế hoạch phát triển kinh tế - xã hội. Điều này phản ánh thực tiễn đang có nhiều khó khăn, thách thức hơn so với những dự kiến trước đó.Trên thực tế, tăng trưởng kinh tế trong nước bị ảnh hưởng trước nguy cơ suy thoái toàn cầu cùng với chính sách tiền tệ (CSTT) thắt chặt tại nhiều quốc gia. Thêm vào đó, cuộc xung đột Nga - Ukraine (Ucraina) tiếp tục tác động ảnh hưởng lan tỏa.Báo cáo gần đây nhất của Ngân hàng Phát triển châu Á (ADB) cho biết suy thoái kinh tế thế giới trở nên trầm trọng trong quý IV/2022 và nhiều khả năng sẽ tiếp tục trong năm 2023. Cụ thể, nhu cầu toàn cầu đi xuống khiến chỉ số sản xuất công nghiệp của Việt Nam giảm 6,3% trong hai tháng đầu năm (so với cùng kỳ năm 2022). Trong đó, chỉ số Nhà quản trị mua hàng (PMI) ngành sản xuất chế biến chế tạo đã xuống dưới mức 50 trong bốn tháng liên tiếp.Tổ chức này đưa ra dự báo khu vực công nghiệp của Việt Nam sẽ tăng chậm ở mức 7,5% trong năm nay và đóng góp 2,7 điểm phần trăm vào tăng trưởng GDP. Tuy nhiên, các chuyên gia của ADB cho rằng lĩnh vực xây dựng có thể tăng tốt hơn nếu các dự án cơ sở hạ tầng lớn được thực hiện theo kế hoạch. Ngoài ra, khu vực dịch vụ dự kiến tăng 8%/năm trong xu thế phục hồi và điểm sáng cũng được ghi nhận trong khu vực nông nghiệp với mức dự kiến tăng là 3,2%/năm., Tóm tắt tiếng anh, The General Statistics Office announced that economic growth in the first quarter of 2023 was estimated at 3.32% compared to the same period in 2022, lower than the scenario of 5.6% in Resolution 01/NQ-CP of the Government on tasks , the main solution to implement the socio-economic development plan. This reflects the fact that there are more difficulties and challenges than previously expected. In fact, domestic economic growth has been affected by the risk of a global recession along with tight monetary policy in many countries. In addition, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine (Ukraine) continues to have a spillover effect. The most recent report of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said that the world economic recession has become more severe in the coming years. In the fourth quarter of 2022 and is likely to continue in 2023. Specifically, the decline in global demand caused the industrial production index of Vietnam to decrease by 6.3% in the first two months of the year (compared to the same period last year). 2022). In particular, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of the manufacturing and processing industry has fallen below 50 for four consecutive months. This organization forecasts that Vietnam's industrial sector will grow slowly at 7.5% this year and contribute 2.7 percentage points to GDP growth. However, ADB experts say that the construction sector can grow better if large infrastructure projects are carried out as planned. In addition, the service sector is expected to increase by 8%/year in the recovery trend and a bright spot is also recorded in the agricultural sector with an expected increase of 3.2%/year.

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