Dự báo hạn mùa số lượng xoáy thuận nhiệt đới trên khu vực Biển Đông và đổ bộ vào Việt Nam

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Tác giả: Phúc Lâm Hoàng, Khánh Huyền Lưu, Hữu Chỉnh Tạ

Ngôn ngữ: Vie

Ký hiệu phân loại: 628 Sanitary and municipal engineering Environmental protection engineering

Thông tin xuất bản: Khí tượng Thủy văn 2022

Mô tả vật lý: 45587

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 404861

Thêm vào giỏ Liên kết toàn văn

Trình bày nghiên cứu về xác định các đặc điểm hoạt động của XTNĐ trên Biển Đông và đổ bộ vào đất liền Việt Nam, sử dụng phương pháp hồi quy từng bước xây dựng bộ công cụ dự báo hạn mùa số lượng XTNĐ trên Biển Đông và đổ bộ vào đất liền dựa trên mối quan hệ với các chỉ số hoàn lưu và các dao động quy mô lớn như ENSO, IOD, QBO, v.v... Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy tháng 9 là giai đoạn có nhiều XTNĐ hoạt động trên Biển Đông và đổ bộ vào đất liền nước ta nhất. Đa số (75%) XTNĐ đổ bộ vào đất liền là ATNĐ và bão, chỉ có 25% là bão mạnh và bão rất mạnh. Số lượng XTNĐ trên Biển Đông giai đoạn 1991-2020 có xu hướng tăng nhẹ so với giai đoạn 1961-1990, khoảng 4,2%
ngược lại, số lượng XTNĐ đổ bộ lại có xu hướng giảm nhẹ (khoảng 3,1%). Mô hình dự báo được xu thế tăng giảm XTNĐ trên Biển Đông và đổ bộ so với trung bình nhiều năm nhưng còn có xu hướng thiên thấp, sai số lớn chủ yếu ở những mùa có nhiều hơn 8 XTNĐ trên Biển Đông và nhiều hơn 5 XTNĐ đổ bộ vào đất liền., Tóm tắt tiếng anh, This paper presents a study on the characteristics of tropical cyclone activity in East Sea and landfall in Vietnam, use the stepwise regression method to build a seasonal statistical prediction model for those two numbers of tropical cyclones (in East Sea and landfall in Vietnam) based on the relationship with climate indices and large-scale processes such as ENSO, IOD, QBO, etc. The results show that September has the most tropical cyclone activity in East Sea and landfall in Vietnam. The majority (75%) of tropical cyclones that hit Vietnam's mainland are tropical depressions and tropical storms, and only 25% are severe tropical storms and typhoons. The number of tropical cyclones in East Sea in the period 1991-2020 tends to increase slightly compared to the period 1961-1990, about 4.2%
on the other hand, the number of landfall tropical cyclones slightly decrease (about 3.1%). The model predicts well the tendency of increase or decrease in the number of tropical cyclones compared to the average, but it is less than the observation in general. The seasons with more than 8 tropical cyclones in East Sea and more than 5 tropical cyclones landfall in Vietnam show larger errors.

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