Nhận diện kiệt quệ tài chính của các doanh nghiệp phi tài chính niêm yết tại Việt Nam

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Tác giả: Hoàng Vinh Lê, Lê Quang Phạm

Ngôn ngữ: Vie

Ký hiệu phân loại:

Thông tin xuất bản: Tạp chí Kinh tế & Phát triển 2022

Mô tả vật lý: 15-24

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 409314

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Tóm tắt
Chủ đề

Bằng tiếp cận các mô hình Z-Score (1968), Z-Score (1984), Z-Score (1995), S-Score (1978), O-Score (1980) và X-Score (1983), bài viết có mục tiêu là lựa chọn mô hình phù hợp để nhận diện kiệt quệ tài chính của các doanh nghiệp phi tài chính niêm yết tại Việt Nam. Bài viết sử dụng phương pháp chọn mẫu có mục đích, từ đó thu thập dữ liệu thứ cấp từ 505 doanh nghiệp trong suốt giai đoạn 2015-2020. Kết quả kiểm định Kolmogorov-Smirnov với mức ý nghĩa 5% khẳng định dữ liệu kiệt quệ tài chính được xác định bởi 6 mô hình đều phân phối không chuẩn. Theo đó, bài viết sử dụng kiểm định Kruskal Wallis để xem xét sự khác biệt nếu có giữa các mô hình, đồng thời phân tích các chỉ tiêu thống kê để xác định mô hình phù hợp nhất, bao gồm tỷ lệ chính xác, tỷ lệ lỗi loại I và tỷ lệ lỗi loại II. Kết quả nghiên cứu của bài viết khẳng định nhận diện kiệt quệ tài chính có sự khác biệt khi áp dụng các mô hình Z-Score (1968), Z-Score (1984), Z-Score (1995), S-Score, O-Score và X-Score, trong đó mô hình có tỷ lệ chính xác cao nhất là S-Score, mô hình có tỉ lệ lỗi loại I cao nhất là X-Score và mô hình có tỷ lệ lỗi loại II cao nhất là O-Score. Với kết quả nghiên cứu này, bài viết đề xuất sử dụng mô hình S-Score để nhận diện kiệt quệ tài chính của các doanh nghiệp phi tài chính niêm yết tại Việt Nam, đồng thời gợi ý các nghiên cứu tiếp theo có thể xem xét lựa chọn mô hình cho theo từng nhóm ngành hoặc từng ngành., Tóm tắt tiếng anh, Approaching Z-Score (1968), Z-Score (1984), Z-Score (1995), S-Score (1978), O-Score (1980) andX-Score (1983) models, the aim of this paper is to choose the appropriate model to identify the financial distress of non-financial firms listed in Vietnam. The research uses purposive sampling method for selecting and the secondary' data is collected from 505 firms during the period 2015-2020. The results of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test with the significance level of 5°/o confirm that the financial distress data determined by the six models are not normally distributed. According to the results just mentioned, the study employs the Kruskal Wallis test to examine the differences between the models
and the statistical indicators are analyzed for determining the most suitable model, including Accuracy rate, Type I error rate and Type II error rate. The results confirm that there is a difference in identifying the financial distress by using Z-Score (1968), Z-Score (1984), Z-Score (1995), S-Score, O-Score andX- Score models, in which the model with the highest accuracy rate is S-Score, the model with the highest type I error rate is X-Score and the model with the highest type II error rate is O-Score. Based on the findings, the research proposes to use the S-Score model for identifying the financial distress of non-financial firms listed in Vietnam, and we recommend that the further studies can test to select the models for firms in the same industry or industry group.

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