Xu thế biến đổi của các yếu tố khí hậu và kịch bản biến đổi khí hậu tỉnh Ninh Thuận

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Tác giả: Thị Cầm Mi Nguyễn, Văn Hồng Nguyễn

Ngôn ngữ: Vie

Ký hiệu phân loại:

Thông tin xuất bản: Khí tượng thủy văn 2021

Mô tả vật lý: 44-55

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 410058

Thêm vào giỏ Liên kết toàn văn

Trình bày xu thế biến đổi các yếu tố khí hậu (nhiệt độ, lượng mưa) tại tỉnh Ninh Thuận. Phương pháp thống kê và hàm hồi quy tuyến tính được sử dụng để phân tích chuỗi số liệu quan trắc tại trạm Phan Rang giai đoạn 1993-2019. Kết quả cho thấy các yếu tố khí hậu đều có xu thế tăng: nhiệt độ trung bình nhiều năm có xu thế tăng 0,012oC/năm, nhiệt độ tối cao tăng 0,017oC/năm, nhiệt độ tối thấp tăng 0,01oC/năm, lượng mưa tăng 4,44 mm/năm. Theo kịch bản RCP4.5 và RCP8.5, nhiệt độ trung bình tại Ninh Thuận có xu thế tăng qua các năm 2025, 2030, 2050 và 2100. Về lượng mưa trung bình theo kịch bản RCP4.5 có xu thế tăng. Đối với kịch bản RCP8.5 lượng mưa tăng vào năm 2025, 2030 và giảm và năm 2050, 2100., Tóm tắt tiếng anh, The study was presented the trend of climate (temperature, precipitation) in Ninh Thuan Province. The linear regression method is used to determine the trend and variation of past temperature and precipitation from 1993 to 2019 at Phan Rang meteorological stations. The results showed that the climate factors tend to increase: the annual average temperature for many years tends to increase by 0.012oC/year, the annual highest temperature increases by 0.017oC/ year, the annual lowest minimum temperature increases by 0.01oC/year, the precipitation increases by 4.44 mm/year. According to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, the annual average temperature in Ninh Thuan tends to increase through 2025, 2030, 2050 and 2100. In terms of annual average precipitation for the RCP4.5 climate change scenario tends to increase. For the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the precipitation increases in 2025, 2030 and decreases and in 2050, 2100.

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