Xây dựng bản đồ chi tiết cấp độ rủi ro do ngập lụt hạ lưu Sông Ba

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Tác giả: Văn Chanh Bùi, Văn Hưng Trần

Ngôn ngữ: Vie

Ký hiệu phân loại:

Thông tin xuất bản: Khoa học Biến đổi khí hậu 2023

Mô tả vật lý: 54-65

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 411862

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Tóm tắt
Chủ đề

Cấp độ rủi ro do lũ lụt quy định trong Quyết định 18/2021/QĐ-TTg ngày 22 tháng 4 năm 2021 của Thủ tướng Chính phủ được xác định bằng mực nước và cấp báo động lũ tại các trạm thủy văn nên chưa chi tiết. Vì cùng một mực nước nhưng độ sâu ngập ở các vùng khác nhau nên rủi ro khác nhau, ngoài ra ở những vùng có độ sâu ngập như nhau nhưng mức độ phát triển kinh tế - xã hội khác nhau nên rủi ro cũng khác nhau. Do đó, để nâng cao độ tin cậy về cảnh báo rủi ro do ngập lụt cần xây dựng bản đồ chi tiết theo không gian. Trong nghiên cứu này đã thử nghiệm chi tiết cấp độ rủi ro do ngập lụt cho hạ lưu Sông Ba dựa trên Quyết định 18 và chi tiết bản đồ chỉ số rủi ro dựa trên quan điểm của IPCC, phương pháp AHP. Bản đồ chi tiết chỉ số rủi ro hạ lưu Sông Ba được xây dựng từ bản đồ chi tiết ngập lụt và số liệu điều tra xã hội học. Các kịch bản ngập hạ lưu Sông Ba kết hợp với số liệu điều tra xã hội học xây dựng được bản đồ chi tiết cấp độ rủi ro do ngập lụt ứng với các tần suất 1%, 3%, 5%, 10%, vỡ đập Sông Ba Hạ ứng với lũ thiết kế và lũ kiểm tra. Kết quả cho thấy, kịch bản vỡ đập rủi ro phổ biến là cấp 4, tần suất 1% rủi ro phổ hiến là cấp 3 - 4, tần suất 3% và 5% rủi ro phổ biến là cấp 3, tần suất 10% rủi ro phổ biến là cấp 2 - 3 thành phố Tuy Hòa và huyện Sơn Hòa, Sông Hinh có cấp độ rủi ro cao hơn các khu vực khác do mức độ phơi nhiễm của tài sản trước thiên tai hoặc độ sâu ngập lụt lớn., Tóm tắt tiếng anh, The flood risk level in the Prime Minister's Decision No-18/2021/QĐ -TTg of April 22th in 2014 which is identified by water and alarm level at hydrology stations, therefore it is not detailed. Because, at the same water level but inundation depth is deferent between regions so inundation risk level is deferent. Beside, at the same inundation depth but socioeconomic is deferent between regions so inundation risk level is deferent too. Therefore, it is needed to develop inundation risk maps for advancing reliability about warning. This research, experimented establishing detail inundation risk level map in the Ba downstream river based on the Decision No-18 and risk index detail based on the IPCC of perspective, the AHP of method. The detail inundation risk index map in the Ba downstream river is established by detail inundation map and sociology survey data. Inundation scenario maps in the Ba downstream river and sociology survey data are combined to establish detail inundation risk level map for 1%, 3%, 5%, 10% flood frequency and dam break of Ba Ha River with design flood, test flood. The results show that the case of dam break then common risk level is level 4, 1% flood frequency then common risk level is level 3 - 4, 3% and 5% frequency then common risk level is level 3, 10% frequency then common risk level is level 2 - 3 risk level in Tuy Hoa city, Son Hoa and Song Hinh district are higher than other areas because exposure of property in hazard or inundation depth is higher.

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