Kiểm định giả thuyết tăng trưởng kinh tế dẫn dắt phát triển du lịch tại Việt Nam

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Ngôn ngữ: Vie

Ký hiệu phân loại: 304 Factors affecting social behavior

Thông tin xuất bản: Tạp chí khoa học và công nghệ Đại Học Duy Tân, 2021

Mô tả vật lý: 141-151

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 417540

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Bài viết điều tra mối quan hệ giữa doanh thu du lịch, tỷ giá hối đoái và tăng trưởng kinh tế Việt Nam thời kỳ 1990-2017 và xác định có hay không giả thuyết tăng trưởng kinh tế dẫn dắt phát triển du lịch. Các phương pháp Vector Error correction Model (VEC), kiểm định nhân quả Grange, phân rã phương sai được sử dụng với dữ liệu từ 1990 -2017. Kết quả nghiên cứu chỉ ra rằng Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Tourism Receipts (TR) và Real exchange rate (EXR) là đồng hội nhập, biểu hiện mối quan hệ dài hạn giữa 3 biến này. Giá trị ECM (-1) = 0.6388 cho thấy tốc độ điều chỉnh hướng về cân bằng dài hạn chừng 1.5 năm. Công nghiệp du lịch Việt Nam đã góp phần giải quyết việc làm, đem lại ngoại tệ và kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy bằng chứng rằng giả thuyết tăng trưởng kinh tế dẫn dắt du lịch phát triển và ngược lại là được chấp nhận trong trường hợp của Việt Nam trong thời kỳ 1990 -2017. Bài viết cũng đề xuất các khuyến nghị để phát triển kinh tế Việt Nam., Tóm tắt tiếng anh, The study empirically investigate the relationship between tourism receipts, exchange rate and economic growth in the period 1990-2017 and define whether the tourism -led growth (TLG) hypothesis for Vietnam. The study implements Vector Error correction Model, Granger causality tests, variance decomposition with data in the periods 1990 -2017. The results point out that Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Tourism Receipts (TR) and Real exchange rate (EXR) are cointegrated, implying a long-run relationship between three variables. The value of ECM (-1) = 0.6388, this shows that speed of adjustment toward long run equilibrium is about 1.5 year. There is long run causality running between TR, GDP and EXR. In the short run, there is causality relation between GDP and TR, between EXR and TR. Tourism industry has contributed in solving employments, brought foreign currencies and the results give the evidences that tourist -led growth hypothesis (TLG) is accepted in the case of Vietnam in the period 1990-2017. The study also proposed some recommendations to develop Vietnam economy.

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