The watershed is the optimal natural division for ecosystems, playing a crucial role in carbon reduction and sequestration. Exploring the carbon sequestration potential of terrestrial ecosystems under different land use scenarios and enhancing regional carbon storage capacity is of significant importance. In this study, the LUCC in the Lijiang River basin under the scenarios of natural evolution (NE), natural conservation (NC), urban developmentand (UD) and farmland protection (FP) in 2040 was simulated by using grid data, driver grid data and carbon density data, based on the PLUS model and the InVEST model. Then, the effects of land use change on carbon stock in the Lijiang River Basin from 2000 to 2040 were evaluated. The results show that, (1)from 2000 to 2020, the area of arable land significantly increased in the Li River Basin, while forest and grassland areas decreased significantly. The distribution pattern of land use in the Li River Basin is mainly influenced by factors such as economy, population density, topography, and roads. Population growth and economic development require more arable land, forest land, and construction land. (2)Due to land use change, the carbon stock in the Li River Basin decreased by 3.69 × 10