Nguy cơ xâm nhập mặn sông Sài Gòn, Đồng Nai trong bối cảnh biến đổi khí hậu và nước biển dâng=Risks of the saltwater intrusion in the SaiGon, DongNai rivers in the context of climate change and sea level rise

0 Người đánh giá. Xếp hạng trung bình 0

Tác giả: NgọC Tuấn Lê, Kỳ PhùNg NguyễN, Thị Kim Trần

Ngôn ngữ: vie

Ký hiệu phân loại:

Thông tin xuất bản: Tạp chí Phát triển Khoa học & Công nghệ: Chuyên san Khoa học Tự nhiên, 2018

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Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 473007

Thêm vào giỏ

Nghiên cứu nhằm mục tiêu đánh giá nguy cơ xâm nhập mặn (XNM) sông Sài Gòn, Đồng Nai trong bối cảnh biến đổi khí hậu (BĐKH) đến năm 2100 theo các kịch bản RCP4.5 và RCP8.5. Bằng phương pháp mô hình hóa, kết hợp phương pháp GIS, kết quả tính toán cho thấy XNM ngày càng gia tăng và di chuyển sâu về phía thượng lưu. Chênh lệch độ mặn giữa hai kịch bản RCP4.5 và RCP8.5 chỉ thấy rõ từ giữa đến cuối thế kỷ XXI. Trên dòng chính sông Sài Gòn, tương ứng năm 2025, 2030, 2050 và 2100, theo RCP4.5, ranh mặn 0,25‰ cách trạm bơm Hòa Phú lần lượt 0,75 km, 1,6 km, 4,09 km và 6,22 km so với 0,75km, 1,6km, 4,6km và 8,6km theo RCP8.5. Trên dòng chính song Đồng Nai, so với trạm bơm Hóa An, các số liệu tương ứng là 3,7km, 4,9km, 7,7 km, 11,7 km theo RCP4.5 và 3,7 km
4,9 km
8,1 km
12,6 km theo RCP8.5. Kết quả nghiên cứu cung cấp cơ sở quan trọng cho việc hoạch định các giải pháp thích ứng XNM phù hợp, đảm bảo các hoạt động sinh hoạt và sản xuất tại địa phươngThis work aimed to assess the risk of the saltwater intrusion (SI) in main rivers in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) in the context of climate change by 2100 under scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. By modeling and GIS methods, results showed that SI has been increasing and moving upstream. Differences in the salinity between the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios could be only visible from the middle to the end of the 21st century. In Saigon river, for RCP4.5, corresponding to 2025, 2030, 2050, and 2100, the salt line of 0.25‰ would be 0.25km, 1.6 km, 4.09km and 6.22km, respectively from Hoa Phu pump station as compared to that of 0.75 km
1.6km
4.6 km and 8.6 km, respectively for RCP8.5. In Dong Nai river, from Hoa An pump station, the corresponding figures would be 3.7km
4.9km
7.7km
11.7km according to RCP4.5 and 3.7km, 4.9 km, 8.1km, 12.6km according to RCP8.5. The research results provide an important basis for planning suitable adaptation solutions, ensuring local activities and production.

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