Thử nghiệm lọc Kalman tổ hợp đa vật lý mô phỏng quỹ đạo và cường độ cơn bão HaiYan 2013 = Testing of the Multi-Physics Ensemble Kalman filter to Simulate the Track and Intensity of the Typhoon HaiYan (2013)

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Tác giả: Thị Hằng Nguyễn, Thị Minh Phạm, Thị Mai Hương Trần, Văn Sơn Trần, Thị Năm Từ

Ngôn ngữ: vie

Ký hiệu phân loại:

Thông tin xuất bản: Tạp chí Phát triển Khoa học & Công nghệ: Chuyên san Khoa học Trái đất và Môi trường, 2019

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: NCBI

ID: 473115

Thêm vào giỏ

Bài báo này trình bày một số kết quả thử nghiệm phương pháp lọc Kalman tổ hợp đa vật lý đồng hóa số liệu gió vệ tinh trong mô hình WRF mô phỏng quĩ đạo và cường độ cơn bão HaiYan năm 2013. Nghiên cứu tiến hành hai thí nghiệm (1) dự báo tổ hợp với lọc Kalman tổ hợp đa vật lý đồng hóa số liệu gió vệ tinh (CIMSS)
(2) dự báo tổ hợp đa vật lý (MPH). Kết quả phân tích hoàn lưu khí quyển trong mô phỏng bắt đầu lúc 12 giờ UTC (giờ quốc tế) ngày 07 tháng 11 năm 2013 cho thấy xu thế cũng như cường độ của hoàn lưu chung trong thử nghiệm CIMSS giống với sự phát triển thực tế hơn so với thử nghiệm MPH, nhờ đó kết quả dự báo quỹ đạo bão ở hạn dự báo 48 giờ trở đi của thử nghiệm CIMSS tốt hơn so với thử nghiệm MPH. Hơn nữa, kết quả thử nghiệm của 6 trường hợp mô phỏng cho sai số mô phỏng quỹ đạo bão trong thử nghiệm CIMSS giảm lần lượt 14,0% và 14,3% ở hạn dự báo 48 giờ và 72 giờ so với thử nghiệm MPH, và giảm lần lượt 14,0% và 23,9% so với kết quả dự báo toàn cầu GFS. Đối với cường độ bão (Pmin và Vmax), thử nghiệm CIMSS cũng cho kết quả sai số cải thiện đáng kể ở hạn dự báo 72 giờ so với thử nghiệm MPH. Từ những kết quả trên có thể khẳng định việc đồng hóa số liệu gió vệ tinh vào trường đầu vào của mô hình có ảnh hưởng tích cực đến kỹ năng dự báo cường độ và quỹ đạo cơn bão Haiyan 2013. Kết quả này, mở ra một hướng nghiên cứu ứng dụng lọc Kalman tổ hợp đa vật lý dự báo các cơn bão ảnh hưởng đến Việt Nam. This paper presents some experimental results of the multi-physics ensemble Kalman filter method which assimilating the satellite wind data in WRF model to simulate the track and intensity of the typhoon HaiYan (2013). The study conducted two experiments. (1) Ensemble forecast with multiphysics ensemble Kalman filter assimilates the satellite wind data (CIMSS)
(2) multi-physics Ensemble forecast (MPH). The results of atmospheric circulation analysis in the simulation started at 12 UTC (international time) until November 7, 2013, showing that the trend and intensity of the general circulation in the CIMSS test are similar to the real development. So the results of the storm trajectory forecast of CIMSS test at the 48-hour forecast limit onwards are better than the MPH test. Moreover, experimental results based on the results of the 6 simulations for simulation error, the track error in the CIMSS test decreased 14% and 14.3% respectively in the 48-hour forecast period and 72 hours compared with the MPH test, and decreased 14% and 23.9% respectively compared to the global GFS forecast. For storm intensity (Pmin and Vmax), the CIMSS test also resulted in significantly improved errors in the 72-hour forecast period compared to MPH testing. These results confirmed that the assimilation of the satellite wind data into the input field of the model has a positive effect on Haiyan storm intensity and trajectory prediction skills. We may used this research to applying the multi-physics ensemble Kalman filter for forecasting storms affecting Vietnam.

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