The economic reform in 1986 transformed Vietnam from a centrally planned economy to a socialistoriented market economy. It is suggested that entrepreneurs and entrepreneurial spirits within the populace fuelled the structural changes. Despite the importance of entrepreneurship in Vietnam’s economy, studies in Vietnam mainly focus on the practical aspects of entrepreneurial activities and neglect the cognitive and theoretical aspects of entrepreneurship. Thus, this study employs the information-processing perspective of the Mindsponge Theory to explore how entrepreneurs’ knowledge accumulation affects their perceived likelihood of business success. By analysing a comprehensive dataset of Vietnamese entrepreneurship using Bayesian methods, our findings reveal that entrepreneurs with significant business-related experience have higher probabilities of success. Additionally, a greater willingness/readiness to transform thinking, actions, and beliefs can improve the business success of entrepreneurs who carefully study others’ failures. However, for those who perceive learning from others’ failures as unnecessary, a higher willingness/readiness to transform diminishes their chance of success. We recommend a balanced approach: entrepreneurs should build their knowledge pool through experience, learning, and open-mindedness. A sufficient pool of knowledge can empower Vietnamese entrepreneurs, enabling them to make informed decisions, foster innovation, and contribute substantially to the nation’s entrepreneurial landscape.