Góc nhìn sâu hơn về nền kinh tế thời gian gần đây, liệu Việt Nam có phải đối mặt với chu kì khủng hoảng 10 năm hay không?=A Closer look into recent economy, Whether or not Vietnam faces a 10-year crisis?

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Tác giả: Tuấn Đinh Công, Yingjun Sun

Ngôn ngữ: vie

Ký hiệu phân loại:

Thông tin xuất bản: Tạp chí Khoa học và Công nghệ - Đại học Nguyễn Tất Thành, 2019

Mô tả vật lý: tr.76

Bộ sưu tập: Báo, Tạp chí

ID: 487320

Thêm vào giỏ

From 2018, the global economy began to grow strongly and synchronously, but as 2018 passed, the development momentum has become slower, faded, along with biased growing trends. The US economy has accelerated thanks to fiscal stimulus policies early this year, while the economy of the EU, Britain, Japan and China began to weaken. These differences will continue to exist in 2019 and Vietnam is not excluded. This study is a closer look into Vietnamese economy from 2007 up to now & prediction to the upcoming period. Objective: The present study aims at giving predictions & recommendations to sustain Vietnam's economy in the next years based on analyzing multiple economic indicators such as: economic growth rate, inflation, unemployment rate, import and export throughout the period 2007 - 2018. Material and methods: General information about the Vietnam's economy & crisis trend was collected from the documentation provided by National Financial Committee as well as economic websites. Then, the authors analyzed & made comparisons between years to years & created tables to show them clearly. Secondary data, such as theoretical frameworks and literature, were obtained from reference books, scientific books, scientific articles and peer reviewed journals. Results: The economy since 2007 has been so volatile: the economic growth rate fell erratically, unpredictably
unemployment & inflation rate are still really big problems while import, export & investment have prospered gradually. Conclusions: Vietnam's economy is on a good & rapid growth path, with many economic advantages. However, in essence, Vietnam is still a young economy, so we need to be well prepared to cope with major economic fluctuations that may occur, possibly next year - the beginning year of the 10-year crisis period.Từ năm 2018, nền kinh tế toàn cầu bắt đầu tăng trưởng mạnh mẽ và đồng bộ, nhưng năm 2018 trôi qua, đà phát triển trở nên chậm hơn, xu hướng tăng trưởng lệch. Nền kinh tế Mĩ tăng tốc nhờ các chính sách kích thích tài chính vào đầu năm nay, trong khi nền kinh tế của EU, Anh, Nhật Bản và Trung Quốc bắt đầu suy yếu. Những khác biệt này sẽ tiếp tục tồn tại vào năm 2019 và Việt Nam cũng không ngoại trừ. Bài nghiên cứu dưới đây cho chúng ta một cái nhìn chi tiết hơn về nền kinh tế Việt Nam từ năm 2007 đến nay và dự đoán cho giai đoạn sắp tới. Mục tiêu: Bài nghiên cứu nhằm đưa ra dự đoán và khuyến nghị để duy trì nền kinh tế Việt Nam trong những năm tới dựa trên việc phân tích nhiều chỉ tiêu kinh tế như: tốc độ tăng trưởng kinh tế, lạm phát, tỉ lệ thất nghiệp, xuất nhập khẩu trong giai đoạn 2007 - 2018. Tài liệu và phương pháp: Thông tin chung về xu hướng khủng hoảng và kinh tế Việt Nam được thu thập từ các tài liệu do Ủy ban Tài chính Quốc gia cũng như các trang web kinh tế cung cấp. Sau đó, tác giả đã phân tích và thực hiện so sánh giữa năm này với năm khác và tạo các bảng để hiển thị chúng rõ ràng hơn. Dữ liệu thứ cấp, ví dụ như lí thuyết và tài liệu được lấy từ sách tham khảo, sách khoa học, bài báo khoa học và các tạp chí đánh giá tương đương. Kết quả: Nền kinh tế từ năm 2007 đã rất biến động: tốc độ tăng trưởng kinh tế giảm thất thường, không thể đoán trước được
tỉ lệ thất nghiệp và lạm phát vẫn là vấn đề thực sự lớn trong khi nhập khẩu, xuất khẩu và đầu tư ngày một phát triển. Kết luận: Nền kinh tế của Việt Nam đang trên con đường tăng trưởng tốt và nhanh chóng, với nhiều lợi thế kinh tế. Tuy nhiên, về bản chất, Việt Nam vẫn là một nền kinh tế non trẻ, vì vậy chúng ta cần chuẩn bị tốt để đối phó với những biến động kinh tế lớn có thể xảy ra, có thể trong năm 2019 - năm đầu của giai đoạn khủng hoảng 10 năm.

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