Mối quan hệ giữa mức phát thải khí gây hiệu ứng nhà kính và tăng trưởng kinh tế tại việt nam

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Tác giả: Phương Thanh Lê, Anh Tuấn Nguyễn, Hồng Mạnh Phạm

Ngôn ngữ: vie

Ký hiệu phân loại: 650 Management and auxiliary services

Thông tin xuất bản: Phát triển khoa học và công nghệ: khoa học - kinh tế - luật và khoa học quản lý (đhqg tp. hồ chí minh), 2022

Mô tả vật lý: 2334-2347

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 489498

Thêm vào giỏ

Nghiên cứu này nhằm đánh giá mối quan hệ giữa mức phát thải khí gây hiệu ứng nhà kính và tăng trưởng kinh tế tại Việt Nam. Thông qua bộ dữ liệu của Ngân hàng thế giới, nghiên cứu sử dụng phương pháp ước lượng tự hồi quy véc tơ (VAR). Kết quả nghiên cứu chỉ ra các yếu tố tác động đến cường độ phát thải khí CO2 tại Việt Nam có ý nghĩa thống kê ở các mức 1%, 5% và 10%, bao gồm(:) cường độ phát thải (độ trễ là 2) có mức độ tác động -0,48
tăng trưởng kinh tế có mức độ tác động 29180,49 (có độ trễ bằng 1)
và bình phương tăng trưởng kinh tế có mức độ tác động-14588,66 (có độ trễ bằng 1) với mức độ giải thích của mô hình là 56,54%. Ngoài ra, hệ số của hàm bậc hai ước lượng nhỏ hơn 0, do vậy đồ thị biểu diễn mối quan hệ giữa tăng trưởng kinh tế với mức phát thải quay xuống dưới, phản ánh dạng đường cong Kuznet môi trường. Đồng thời, kết quả kiểm định nhân quả Granger (Granger Causality Tests) cho thấy tồn tại mối quan hệ nhân quả giữa tăng trưởng kinh tế với cường độ phát thải khí nhà kính CO2 tại Việt Nam trong giai đoạn nghiên cứu ở mức ý nghĩa 5%. Trên cơ sở kết quả từ mô hình, nghiên cứu đề xuất một số giải pháp nhằm hạn chế mức phát thải gây hiệu ứng nhà kính nhưng vẫn thúc đẩy tăng trưởng trưởng kinh tế (theo định hướng tăng trưởng xanh) như sau(:) (1) giảm các nguồn thải gây hiệu ứng nhà kính trong các lĩnh vực(:) công nghiệp, xây dựng, giao thông, nông nghiệp, dịch vụ du lịch
(2) giảm sử dụng năng lượng hóa thạch và thay thế bởi các nguồn năng lượng tái tạo
(3) ứng dụng khoa học công nghệ hiện đại trong các ngành sản xuất của nền kinh tế
(4) hoàn thiện khung pháp lý để khuyến khích các ngành kinh tế, các doanh nghiệp sử dụng hiệu quả nguồn tài nguyên thiên nhiên
(5) Chính phủ có chính sách cụ thể để khuyến khích các thành phần kinh tế ứng dụng rộng rãi công nghệ hiện đại trong sản xuất.This research aims to evaluate the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and economic growth [measured by GDP (gross domestics product) and GDP per capital] in Vietnam. The authors used the data compiled from the WB (word bank) database and time series estimation method. The results from models show that the factors affecting the intensity of CO2 emissions in Vietnam are statistically significant, at 1%, 5% and 10%, with the impact level of emission intensity (with a lag of 2 ) at -0.48
economic growth rate at 29180.49 (with a lag of 1)
and the square of economic growth rate at - 14588.66 (with a lag of 1), with the model's explanatory level of 56.54%. In addition, the coefficient of the quadratic function is negative, illustrated by a downward curve in the graph representing the relationship between economic growth and emissions, reflecting correctly the environmental Kuznet curve. At the same time, the figures of Granger Causality Tests reveal that there is a causal relationship between the economic growth rate and the intensity of CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in Vietnam during the research period, with a significance level of 5%. Economic growth exacerbates the intensity of greenhouse gas (CO2) emissions, and this increase has a return effect on growth (positive effect). However, with the square of economic growth rate doubling, this relationship will tend to be negative. On the basis of the analysis results, the study also proposes some policy implications which reduce the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions and aim to promote green growth in Vietnam(:) (1) reducing emission sources in economic fields(:) industry, agriculture, services
(2) reducing the use of fossil energy which should be replaced by Renewable energy (energy from wind and solar)
(3) applying modern science and technology in production and economic activities
(4) completing the legal framework to encourage economic sectors and businesses to use natural resources effectively
(5) The Government should enact policies to encourage all economic sectors to apply modern technology in production.

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