Urbanization induces significant land use changes that profoundly impact carbon stocks by altering terrestrial ecosystems' carbon storage capacity. This study employs integrated FLUS model and InVEST model alongside land use data to analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of car-bon stocks in Shanghai from 2010 to 2020. We predict future land use change and carbon stock distribution patterns under various scenarios for Shanghai in 2030. Despite cultivated land representing the largest land use type in terms of area, rapid urbanization has drastically reduced it, largely converting it into construction land. Construction land expands most rapidly under the HUS scenario, prioritizing economic development, and least under the EPS scenario, emphasizing eco-logical protection. Annual carbon stocks declined by 165.06 × 10