TÁC ĐỘNG CỦA VIỆC GIẢM GIÁ DẦU ĐẾN PHÚC LỢI CỦA CÁC NHÓM HỘ GIA ĐÌNH VIỆT NAM=THE IMPACTS OF FALLING OIL PRICES ON VIETNAMESE HOUSEHOLD WELFARE

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Tác giả: Nguyễn Mạnh Toàn, Xuân Nguyễn Hữu Nguyên

Ngôn ngữ: vie

Ký hiệu phân loại:

Thông tin xuất bản: Tạp chí Khoa học Kinh tế, 2018

Mô tả vật lý: tr.1

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 495556

Thêm vào giỏ

Biến động giá dầu do sự chênh lệch cung - cầu cũng như các điều kiện kinh tế- chính trị luôn gây nên tình trạng bất ổn cho nền kinh tế ở quy mô toàn cầu. Sau khi đạt mức cao kỷ lục với 109,45 USD/ 1 thùng vào năm 2012, giá dầu thô thế giới bắt đầu giảm liên tục đến năm 2016 với mức giá 40,68 USD/ 1thùng. Dưới tác động của việc giảm giá dầu thô quốc tế trong lịch sử giai đoạn 2012-2016, bài báo đã sử dụng cách tiếp cận của mô hình cân bằng tổng thể dạng tĩnh (CGE) dựa trên nguồn dữ liệu từ ma trận hạch toán xã hội Việt Nam 2012 (VNSAM 2012) để đánh giá sự thay đổi phúc lợi của các nhóm hộ gia đình. Kết quả mô phỏng cho thấy phúc lợi của các hộ dân được cải thiện đáng kể khi giá dầu giảm nhưng sự gia tăng phúc lợi này không đồng đều giữa các nhóm hộ. Trong đó, các nhóm hộ gia đình nông nghiệp ở nông thôn và nhóm hộ gia đình phi nông nghiệp có mức thu nhập cao nhất ở thành thị được hưởng lợi lớn nhất từ tác động của sự biến động giá dầu. Kết quả phân tích cho thấy mức độ ảnh hưởng chủ yếu đến phúc lợi của các nhóm hộ từ kênh tiêu thụ xăng dầu, là cơ sở để chính phủ có thể xây dựng những chính sách điều tiết hoặc hỗ trợ kịp thời cho các đối tượng chịu ảnh hưởng từ các biến động này. Từ khóa: giá dầu, CGE, VNSAM 2012, phúc lợi.The volatility of oil prices caused by supply-demand disparities as well as economic and political conditions has always triggered economic instability on a global scale. After reaching a record high of 109.45 USD a barrel by 2012, world crude oil prices have been falling steadily until 2016 at 40.68 USD per barrel. The paper uses the static CGE model based on accounting matrix Viet Nam 2012 (VNSAM 2012) to assess the welfare of the household groups under the impact of international crude oil price declines during the period from 2012 to 2016. The results show that the living standards of households have improved significantly in falling oil prices but the increased welfare is unequal among household groups. In which, the rural farm household groups and the highest-income non-farm household in urban are benefited most by the impact of oil price fluctuations. The findings of the analysis highlight the major impact on social welfare through the fuel consumption channel, that is the basis for the Government to develop policies regulating or supporting household groups affected by these fluctuations in a timely manner. Keywords: Oil price, static CGE, VNSAM 2012, welfare.

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