Đánh giá mức độ ảnh hưởng của nước biển dâng do biến đổi khí hậu đến dân cư và phát triển nông nghiệp ở đồng bằng sông Cửu Long

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Tác giả: Thị Thủy Đào, Như Ngà Lê, Thị Hường Lê, Thị Minh Hạnh Phạm, Thị Thu Thủy Trịnh

Ngôn ngữ: vie

Ký hiệu phân loại: 338.479159 Secondary industries and services

Thông tin xuất bản: Hội nghị Khoa học và Công nghệ biển toàn quốc: Quyển 5 - Sinh thái, môi trường và quản lý biển, 2011

Mô tả vật lý: 396-403

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 504710

Vietnam is one of the countries that have potentials for developing sea related economic sectors. However, according to a number of recent studies, Vietnam is also one of the countries that are vulnerable to natural disasters and climate change, especially is subjected to serious threats caused by sea level rise. Mekong Delta, an important granary of the country and densely populated place, is the most seriously threaten area. This study is aimed at assessing impacts of sea level rise caused by climate change on residents and agricultural production in Mekong Delta. The calculated results, based on high emission scenario (A2), meqium emission scenario (B2) and low emission scenario (B1), in regard to sea level rise and flooding area up to 2100, show that sea level rise will make relatively large scale impacts on the Delta causing a flooded area which equals to 80 percent of the flooded area of the whole country. Depending on different scenarios, the flooded area can be up to 12.05 percent, 17.96 percent and 36.24 percent of the Delta's total natural land area. The number of households living in potentially flooded areas, that will suffer loss of homes and farms, is estimated at over one million. Noticeably, the impact extent of sea level rise on inhabitants and agriculture production in Mekong Delta is markedly different according to these three scenarios. Proportion of the population affected by the high emission scenario is nearly three times higher than the one affected by the low emission scenario. Similarly, the proportions of flooded agricultural land and the economic loss are 3.2 and 6.2 times higher, respectively. Therefore, relevant measures for preventing and minimizing damages caused by. climate change are recommended in this study due to their essentiality.
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