Nghiên cứu ảnh hưởng của biến đổi khí hậu đến tài nguyên nước mặt lưu vực sông Thu Bồn

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Tác giả: Tiến Quang Nguyễn, Văn Lê Khoa Thi, Xuân Mạnh Trịnh

Ngôn ngữ: vie

Ký hiệu phân loại: 304.25 Climatic and weather factors

Thông tin xuất bản: Khoa học Tài nguyên và Môi trường, 2017

Mô tả vật lý: 84-90

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 536130

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Chủ đề

Lưu vực sông Thu Bồn có vị trí địa lý, địa hình và điều kiện tự nhiên khá phức tạp. Lưu vực sông này được đánh giá là nơi dễ chịu những tác động và tổn thương do các diễn biến bất lợi của các yếu tố như biến đổi khí hậu, thủy văn, xâm nhập mặn, cũng như các hoạt động quản lý khai thác và sử dụng tài nguyên thiên nhiên không hợp lý đang diễn ra rất mạnh mẽ, đặc biệt là nguồn tài nguyên nước. Bài viết nghiên cứu sự biến động của tài nguyên nước mặt trên lưu vực sông Thu Bồn dưới tác động của biến đổi khí hậu dựa trên việc phân tích chuỗi số liệu thực đo và sử dụng công cụ mô hình toán thủy văn (MIKE NAM). Kết quả nghiên cứu sử dụng hai kịch bản RCP 4.5 và RCP 8.5 cho thấy lưu lượng trung bình năm trên lưu vực tăng từ 11,5-18,9%, lưu lượng mùa lũ có xu thế tăng từ 6,9-11,3%. Tuy nhiên, lưu lượng mùa kiệt lại giảm vào khoảng 0,7% ở đầu thế kỷ đối với kịch bản RCP 4.5, ngược lại với kịch bản RCP 8.5 lưu lượng mùa kiệt có xu thế tăng vào khoảng 1,3-11,8% so với thời kỳ cơ sở.Thu Bon river basin has complex geographical position, topography and natural conditions. This river basin is assessed as being vulnerable to the impacts and injuries caused by adverse events of factors such as climate change, hydrology, saline intrusion, as well as exploitation and management activities. Inappropriate use of natural resources is taking place very strongly, especially water resources. The paper studies the fluctuation of surface water resources in the Thu Bon river basin under the impact of climate change based on analyzing real data series and using hydrological math modeling tool (MIKE NAM). The research results using two scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 show that the average annual flow in the basin increases from 11.5 to 18.9%, the flood season flow tends to increase from 6.9 to 11, 3%. However, the dry season discharge decreases at about 0.7% at the beginning of the century for the RCP 4.5 scenario, in contrast to the RCP 8.5 scenario, the dry season discharge tends to increase by 1.3-11.8 % compared to base period.

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