Predicting and validating the risk of interstitial lung disease in systemic lupus erythematosus.

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Tác giả: Yanran Chen, Shujun Gao, Aoyang Guo, Xiaoping Hong, Xinyi Huang, Dongzhou Liu, Hongyang Liu, Qianqian Zhao

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại:

Thông tin xuất bản: Ireland : International journal of medical informatics , 2025

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: NCBI

ID: 552060

 OBJECTIVE: Our study aimed toconstruct a web-based calculator to predict high risk patients of interstitial lung disease (ILD) in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: This retrospective study comprised training and test cohorts, including 581 and 86 patients, respectively. Univariate, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), random forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and logistic regression (LR) analyses were performed. A Venn diagram was used to investigate critical features. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate the model's performance. Risk stratification was performed using the best ROC cut-off value. The web-based calculator was established using Streamlit software. RESULTS: Characteristics such as Raynaud's phenomenon, pulmonary artery systolic pressure, serositis, anti-U1RNP antibodies, anti-Ro52 antibodies, C-reactive protein, age, and disease course were associated with SLE complicated by ILD (SLE-ILD). LR-Venn, RF-Venn, XGBoost-Venn, LASSO-logic, RF, and XGBoost models were constructed. In training cohort, the XGBoost model demonstrated the highest area under the ROC curve (AUC, 0.890
  cut-off value, 0.197
  sensitivity, 0.793
  specificity, 0.836) and provideda netbenefitin decision curve analysis (odds ratio [OR] for SLE-ILD [high- vs. low-risk], 19.6). The model was validated in the test cohort (AUC, 0.866
  sensitivity, 0.722
  specificity, 0.897
  OR, 22.7). Furthermore, an XGBoost model-based web calculator was developed. CONCLUSION: Our web calculator (https://st-xgboost-app-kcv9qm.streamlit.app/) greatly improved risk prediction for SLE-ILD and was implemented effectively.
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