Sử dụng kiểm định nhân quả để phân tích mối quan hệ giữa tăng trưởng kinh tế và thị trường chứng khoán ở việt nam

• Tác giả: Bảo Trân Tống, Văn Hoàng Trần
• Ngôn ngữ: vie
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 338.9 Economic development and growth
• Thông tin xuất bản: Phát triển kinh tế, 2014
• Mô tả vật lý: 116-131
• Bộ sưu tập: Metadata
• ID: 559927

Tóm tắt

The research analyzes the causal relationship between economic growth and stock exchange in Vietnam in 2003-2012 employing time series about quarterly GDP and VN-Index. The objective of the research is to identify the relationship between economic growth and stock exchange through Granger causality test based on VAR model. The research also employs other tests, such as Johansen test and stationarity test. The results show that there exists a one-way causal relationship from stock exchange to economic growth. This implies that changes in stock prices in HOSE reflect Vietnam's macroeconomic conditions and they therefore can be used for predicting future economic growth. The research also affirms the important role of the stock exchange in the economic development in Vietnam.