Rủi ro tiềm ẩn nợ công việt nam và một số vấn đề đặt ra

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Tác giả: Trọng Tài Nguyễn

Ngôn ngữ: vie

Ký hiệu phân loại: 378.597 Higher education

Thông tin xuất bản: Nghiên cứu Kinh tế, 2014

Mô tả vật lý: 26-36

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 562370

The author presented an overview of Vietnam's public debt. Since 2001, Vietnam's public debt has been rising. Public debt/GDP from 32.28 percent in 2001 increased to 42.9 percent in 2009, peaking at 56.3 percent in 2010, then fell slightly to 54.9 percent in 2011 and rose back to 55.7 percent in 2012. Risks mainly from the practice of public debt management in Vietnam. Risk from scale and structure of public debt, potential liabilities: First, an increase in public expenditure and budget deficit makes total domestic expenditure is greater total output.Second, the budget deficit will reduce the supply of capital in the private sector, may increase the interest rate of domestic currency. Risk from prolonged dual deficit. The relationship between fiscal deficit and CA deficit If budget balance reflects the activities of the State, CA is one of the indicators most commonly used to evaluate the foreign policy of a nation. It reflects the results of shortterm financial transactions with the outside world. When CA experiences serious imbalances and prolongs, which may lead to economic recession risk. This is like too much short-term debt results to be unable to pay the debts. State budget deficit of Vietnam has continued to rise in recent years. By the end of 2009, the deficit was 6.9 percent of GDP and reduced to 5.8 percent of GDP in 2010. In reality, state budget deficit is actually more serious than the figures published, because of many large expenditures outside state budget. In parallel with the state budget deficit, the CA of Vietnam has moved from a small surplus at 1.2 billion in 2000 to a large deficit : 1 billion in 2007, to.7 billion in 2008. In 2010, funds from loans accounted for over 43 percent of the cash flow. So Vietnam is in the dual lasting deficit situation. State budget deficit is parallel with CA deficit. Inflation and public debt of Vietnam fluctuations are quite similar ,and have the same upward trend, especially in the period from 2007 to present, due to the impact of the financial crisis and global economic downturn, the inflation and public debt of Vietnam have strong increase. In case of inflation rising sharply (reaching 19.9 percent (in 2008) and 19 percent (2011) as calculated by the IMF), associated with increasing debt means that future tax obligations must be increased to offset the debt, which will double the burden to the economy. This fact puts Vietnam in a similar situation as the economic theories of the spiral of debt - inflation.
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