More than 80% of people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) take first-line tenofovir-disoproxil/lamivudine (or emtricitabine)/dolutegravir (TLD). Due to hard-fought activism, TLD now costs <
5 per person per year in more than 100 LMICs under Voluntary License. With final dolutegravir (DTG) patents expiring by 2029, generic TLD will soon be available globally. Here, we identify seven critical benchmarks that underpin TLDs' success which novel antiretroviral therapy (ART) should now meet, and an eighth benchmark for which novel ART should aim. These benchmarks are superior efficacy
high genetic barrier to resistance
safety in hepatitis B coinfection
favourable drug interaction profiles
HIV2 efficacy
safety in pregnancy, long-acting formulation availability and affordable pricing. We compare the generic TLD availability timeline with development timelines for two case-study novel ART combinations: islatravir/doravirine and cabotegravir/rilpivirine. We demonstrate that currently these regimens and trial programs will not meet key benchmarks required to compete with TLD.