The desertification in the Qaidam Basin has significantly impacted the ecological environment and human livelihood. Amidst the backdrop of anomalous climate warming, predicting the dynamic changes and future trends of desertification within the basin is imperative. In this study, we employ a variety of spatio-temporal statistical analyses to examine the evolutionary trend and driving forces of desertification from 2000 to 2021, integrating vegetation coverage (FVC) indices with climatic factors. Furthermore, a predictive model for desertification was developed, utilizing 6th international coupled model comparison programme (CMIP6) model data coupled with a multivariate pixel-based regression approach. The results indicate a 13% reduction, equivalent to 35,766 km