A region-structured model for early warning of Plasmodium vivax malaria transmission risk in the Republic of Korea.

• Tác giả: Boyeon Kim, Jung Ho Kim, Jeehyun Lee, Joon-Sup Yeom
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 347.066 *Witnesses
• Thông tin xuất bản: England : Journal of infection and public health , 2025
• Bộ sưu tập: NCBI
• ID: 642181

Tóm tắt

BACKGROUND: Malaria cases in the Republic of Korea decreased during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic but surged in 2023. Current models inadequately address spatial heterogeneity in transmission dynamics. This study aimed to address this by designing a region-structured model considering spatial heterogeneity based on regional malaria data from high-risk areas. METHODS: Malaria-risk areas were identified using data from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA), with eight regions designated as hotspots. The population heterogeneity of the model by region was represented using the "Who Acquires Infection From Whom" matrix. The model was calibrated using 2014-2018 KDCA civilian malaria-case data. The reproduction number (R RESULTS: In the hotspots, the value of R CONCLUSION: This study constructed a region-structured model reflecting spatial heterogeneity using actual data. By estimating R