External validation of the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction tools in psoriatic disease: a UK Biobank study.

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Tác giả: David M Hughes, Zenas Z N Yiu, Sizheng Steven Zhao

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 616.99411—.99415 Other diseases

Thông tin xuất bản: Germany : Clinical rheumatology , 2025

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: NCBI

ID: 678732

INTRODUCTION: Risk prediction is important for preventing and managing cardiovascular disease (CVD). CVD risk prediction tools designed for the general population may be inaccurate in people with inflammatory diseases. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the performance of four cardiovascular risk prediction tools (QRISK3, Framingham Risk Score, Reynolds Risk Score and SCORE) in psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and psoriasis. We also compare performance in participants with no inflammatory conditions and in people with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: This research utilised the UK Biobank Resource. We identified participants with PsA, psoriasis and RA and calculated their cardiovascular risk using each risk tool. We assessed model calibration by comparing observed and predicted outcomes. Discrimination of 10-year risk prediction was assessed using time-dependent area under ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values. RESULTS: We included 769 individuals with PsA, 8062 with psoriasis and 4772 with RA when assessing the QRISK3 tool. Predictions for individuals with psoriasis were roughly as accurate as those with no inflammatory conditions with time-dependent AUC of 0.74 (95%CI, 0.72, 0.76) and of 0.74 (95%CI, 0.72, 0.77) respectively. In contrast, individuals with PsA obtained the least accurate predictions with an AUC of 0.70 (95%CI, 0.64, 0.76). Individuals with RA also obtained less accurate predictions with AUC of 0.72 (0.69,0.74). For the Framingham risk score, AUCs varied between 0.61 (95%CI, 0.55, 0.68) for participants with PsA and 0.71 (95%CI, 0.68, 0.74) for individuals with no inflammatory condition. CONCLUSIONS: In general, CVD risk prediction accuracy was similar for individuals with psoriasis or no inflammatory condition, but lower for individuals with PsA or RA.
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