SURGE-ahead postoperative delirium prediction: external validation and open-source library.

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Tác giả: Simone Brefka, Dhayana Dallmeier, Michael Denkinger, Marina L Fotteler, Florian Gebhard, Hans Kestler, Thomas Derya Kocar, Christoph Leinert, Nuh Rahbari, Adriane Uihlein, Martin Wehling, Felix Wezel, Philip Wolf

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại:

Thông tin xuất bản: Switzerland : European geriatric medicine , 2025

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: NCBI

ID: 686009

PURPOSE: In this prospective external validation study, we examined the performance of the Supporting SURgery with GEriatric Co-Management and AI (SURGE-Ahead) postoperative delirium (POD) prediction algorithm. SURGE-Ahead is a collaborative project that aims to develop a clinical decision support system that uses predictive models to support geriatric co-management in surgical wards. Delirium is a common complication in older adults after surgery, leading to poor outcomes and increased healthcare costs. Early and accurate prediction of POD is crucial for timely intervention and prevention strategies. METHODS: The SURGE-Ahead algorithm utilizes a linear support vector machine model with a comprehensive set of 15 clinical and demographic features. In our validation, we analyzed 173 study participants, of which 50 developed POD. RESULTS: The study found that the SURGE-Ahead POD prediction algorithm yielded state-of-the-art performance, using only preoperative data, with a receiver operating characteristics area under the curve of 0.86. In addition, the SURGE-Ahead algorithm exhibited good calibration as shown by a Brier Score of 0.14. The algorithm is openly available on GitHub, facilitating its implementation and adaptation to different surgical settings. CONCLUSION: Our findings contribute to the development of reliable POD prediction tools, ultimately supporting the improvement of patient care in hospitalized older adults.
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