Assessing the impacts of mitigation and geoengineering intervention scenarios on Earth system dynamics and climatological variability with multimodal simulations.

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Tác giả: Bradley A Gay, Lukas Mandrake, Charles E Miller, Kimberley R Miner

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 341.584 Intervention

Thông tin xuất bản: England : Scientific reports , 2025

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: NCBI

ID: 693502

Given a world increasingly dominated by climate extremes, modifying the Earth's climate with large-scale geoengineering intervention is inevitable. However, geoengineering faces a conundrum: forecasting the consequences of climate intervention accurately in a system for which we have incomplete observations and an imperfect understanding. We evaluate the global response and potential implications of mitigation and intervention deployment by utilizing CRU TS4.08 observations, ERA5 reanalysis data, and CMIP6 scenario-based UKESM0-1-LL simulations. From 1950 to 2022, global weighted mean surface temperature (Tsurf) and total precipitation (P) rose by 1.37[Formula: see text]0.48 °C and 0.05[Formula: see text]0.57 mm day-1. Significant regional Tsurf anomalies and erratic interannual variability of P were revealed, with ranges from 7.63 °C in Greenland and northern Siberia to -2.38 °C in central Africa and 1.17 mm day-1 in southern Alaska to -1.20 mm day-1 in Colombia and east Africa. Collectively, mitigation and intervention simulations tended to overestimate the variability and magnitude of Tsurf and P, exhibiting substantial regional discrepancies and scenario-specific heterogeneity when estimating atmospheric methane concentration ([CH
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