Dubious Evidence, Valuable Information.

• Tác giả: Eugene Bardach
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 972.83051 *Central America
• Thông tin xuất bản: United States : Evaluation review , 2025
• Bộ sưu tập: NCBI
• ID: 708244

Tóm tắt

 I explore how "low-quality evidence" from program performance might still be useful in decision-making. Conceptually, a local government named "Here" is motivated to consider a program from "Elsewhere" that seems to show year-over-year exemplary performance. Here must manage five sources of uncertainty about whether and how to extrapolate from Elsewhere: chance in assessing Elsewhere's performance
  illusion due to confounding variables
  estimating the several powers of the program's components
  substitutions in the design process made by Elsewhere and contemplated by Here
  and estimating whether in the final analysis Here can meet its own breakeven criterion for going ahead. Here can begin with Elsewhere's experience, but it still must do much thinking and information-collecting on its own.