Model-informed evaluation of interventions to eliminate tuberculosis transmission in China.

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Tác giả: Liang Chen, Lingming Kong, Yangling Shen, Zhen Wang, Liuxia Wei, Jianling Xiong, Shilu Yao, Jiangyan Zhao, Guanghu Zhu

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 949.59012 *Greece

Thông tin xuất bản: Netherlands : Public health , 2025

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: NCBI

ID: 709872

OBJECTIVES: Despite impressive achievements in the control of tuberculosis (TB), the burden of TB in China remains high. Real-time evaluation of interventions can help optimise strategies to eliminate TB. However, the multiple infection routes and heterogeneous distribution of TB make reliable evaluation difficult. This study aimed to examine the distribution of TB in different age groups and evaluate the efficacy of different interventions. STUDY DESIGN: A compartmental SVEIR model was constructed using ordinary differential equations to simulate TB transmission patterns. METHODS: A TB model was developed to examine disease distribution in different age groups and to determine the efficacy of different interventions. The model was validated by fitting the Chinese TB incidence data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study from 2001 to 2021. The basic reproduction number (R RESULTS: China has reduced TB incidence from 71.5 per 100,000 population in 2001 to 43.7 per 100,000 in 2021, with an estimated R CONCLUSION: TB control remains an urgent priority in China. It is essential to focus efforts on screening and intervention strategies for both latent and infected individuals, especially in the elderly population.
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