AIMS: The VICTORIA trial demonstrated a significant reduction in the primary composite outcome of heart failure (HF) hospitalization or cardiovascular death with vericiguat relative to placebo in high-risk HF. This study aimed to contextualize treatment effects of vericiguat in populations with varying risk profiles simulated from the PARADIGM-HF and DAPA-HF trials. METHODS: Subgroups of VICTORIA participants (n = 5050) were generated to simulate PARADIGM-HF and DAPA-HF trial populations. The PARADIGM-HF-eligible population excluded participants not meeting left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and minimal dose criteria and those with high predicted probability of run-in failure. The DAPA-HF-eligible population excluded those not meeting LVEF and eGFR criteria or with recent (<
30 days) HF hospitalization. The time-to-first-event analysis was performed using an unadjusted Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: A total of 1982 (39.2%) and 2543 (50.4%) VICTORIA participants were respectively deemed eligible for PARADIGM-HF and DAPA-HF. Vericiguat was associated with numerically larger reductions in the primary outcome of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death in populations simulated from PARADIGM-HF [hazard ratio (HR) 0.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72-0.99] and DAPA-HF (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.71-0.94) compared with the overall VICTORIA trial (HR 0.90). Significant reduction in HF hospitalization with vericiguat was also observed in the DAPA-HF-eligible population (HR 0.83, 95%CI 0.73-0.95) and with a nominal reduction in the PARADIGM-HF-eligible population (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.74-1.01). CONCLUSIONS: A trend towards enhanced efficacy of vericiguat in populations simulated from PARADIGM-HF and DAPA-HF was observed. These findings support further exploration of vericiguat in lower-risk HF populations as is being investigated in the ongoing VICTOR (a study of vericiguat in participants with chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction) trial.