BACKGROUND: The arterial to end-tidal carbon dioxide gradient (P [a-Et] CO METHODS: Critically ill patients (n = 1,978) on mechanical ventilation and capnography in the intensive care units of two institutions were enrolled and categorized into three groups: P (a-Et) CO RESULTS: The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score was 29.5 ± 8.1, 31.3 ± 8.2, and 33.3 ± 8.7 in the low, medium, and high groups, respectively (p <
0.001). Overall mortality rates were 25.5 %, 35.6 %, and 52.8 % in the low, medium, and high groups, respectively (p <
0.001). The odds ratio was 1.456 (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.117-1.897, p = 0.002) and 2.320 (95 % CI: 1.635-3.293, p <
0.001) for the medium and high groups, respectively, with the low group as a reference. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of P (a-Et) CO CONCLUSIONS: P (a-Et) CO