OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate an explainable Artificial Intelligence (AI) model for classifying and quantifying upper airway obstruction related to adenoid hypertrophy using three-dimensional (3D) shape analysis of cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans. METHODS: 400 CBCT scans of patients aged 5-18 years were analyzed. Nasopharyngeal airway obstruction (NAO) ratio was calculated to label scans into four grades of obstruction severity, used as the ground truth. Upper airway surface meshes were used to train a deep learning model combining multiview and point-cloud approaches for 3D shape analysis and obstruction severity classification and quantification. Surface Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (SurfGradCAM) generated explainability heatmaps. Performance was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), precision, recall, F1-score, mean absolute error, root mean squared error, and correlation coefficients. RESULTS: The explainable AI model demonstrated strong performance in both classification and quantification tasks. The AUC values for the classification task ranged from 0.77 to 0.94, with the highest values of 0.88 and 0.94 for Grades 3 and 4, respectively, indicating excellent discriminative ability for identifying more severe cases of obstruction. The SurfGradCAM-generated heatmaps consistently highlighted the most relevant regions of the upper airway influencing the AI's decision-making process. In the quantification task, the regression model successfully predicted the NAO ratio, with a strong correlation coefficient of 0.854 (p<
0.001) and R CONCLUSIONS: The proposed explainable AI model, using 3D shape analysis, demonstrated strong performance in classifying and quantifying adenoid hypertrophy-related upper airway obstruction in CBCT scans. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: This AI model provides clinicians with a reliable, automated tool for standardized adenoid hypertrophy assessment. The model's explainable nature enhances clinical confidence and patient communication, potentially improving diagnostic workflow and treatment planning.