PURPOSE: To identify trajectories of depressive symptoms in older breast cancer survivors and demographic, psychosocial, physical health, and cancer-related predictors of these trajectories. METHODS: Recently diagnosed nonmetastatic breast cancer survivors (n = 272), ages 60-98 years, were evaluated for depressive symptoms (Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale, CES-D
scores ≥16 suggestive of clinically significant depressive symptoms). CES-D scores were analyzed in growth-mixture models to determine depression trajectories from baseline (post-surgery, pre-systemic therapy) through 3-year annual follow-up. Multivariable, multinomial logistic regression was used to identify baseline predictors of depression trajectories. RESULTS: Survivors had three distinct trajectories: stable (84.6%), emerging depressive symptoms (10.3%), and recovery from high depressive symptoms at baseline that improved slowly over time (5.1%). Compared to stable survivors, those in the emerging (OR = 1.16
95% CI = 1.08-1.23) or recovery (OR = 1.26
95% CI = 1.15-1.38) groups reported greater baseline anxiety. Greater baseline deficit accumulation (frailty composite measure) was associated with emerging depressive symptoms (OR = 3.71
95% CI = 1.90-7.26). Less social support at baseline (OR = 0.38
95% CI = 0.15-0.99), but greater improvement in emotional (F = 4.13
p = 0.0006) and tangible (F = 2.86
p = 0.01) social support over time, was associated with recovery from depressive symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Fifteen percent of older breast cancer survivors experienced emerging or recovery depressive symptom trajectories. Baseline anxiety, deficit accumulation, and lower social support were associated with worse outcomes. IMPLICATIONS FOR CANCER SURVIVORS: Our results emphasize the importance of depression screening throughout the course of cancer care to facilitate early intervention. Factors associated with depressive symptoms, including lower levels of social support proximal to diagnosis, could serve as intervention levers.