OBJECTIVE: Extraction of the mandibular second molar (L7) and substitution by the mandibular third molar (L8) is an effective treatment option. This study aimed to evaluate spontaneously erupted L8 occlusion after L7 extraction, and identify the influencing factors. METHODS: This study assessed 46 L8 from 28 patients using dental study models, panoramic radiographs, and lateral cephalograms obtained during L7 extraction (T1) and completion of L8 eruption (T2). At T2, samples were categorized as acceptable (A-group) or unacceptable (U-group) based on the American Board of Orthodontics index. L8 angulation and position, retromolar space, distance between the Xi point and mandibular first molar (L6), and Nolla stage were compared between the groups to identify the predictive factors for successful eruption. RESULTS: At T2, 58.7% of L8 exhibited acceptable occlusion. Age at T1 was significantly higher in the U-group than that in the A-group. Angles ∟6-MnP and ∟8-MnP differed significantly between the groups at T2. Xi-L6 distance was considerably longer in the A-group than that in the U-group at T1 and T2. Younger age at extraction and Xi-L6 distance at T1 affected the acceptable occlusion. CONCLUSIONS: Younger age at L7 extraction and adequate eruption space (Xi-L6 distance) appear to be the key factors for achieving acceptable L8 occlusion.