The carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals require China to reduce energy consumption and reduce carbon emissions. Taking Tianjin as an example, the carbon emission inventory was compiled, and the driving degree of each factor was identified by the logarithmic mean index method （LMDI）. Based on this, combined with scenario analysis, the LEAP-TJ model was constructed to explore the trend of terminal energy consumption and carbon emission in Tianjin from 2022 to 2060. The results showed that the economic scale was the first leading factor for the growth of terminal carbon emissions in Tianjin. Energy consumption and carbon emissions will continue to increase in the baseline scenario, and carbon emissions in 2060 will be 2.7 times those in 2021. Under the comprehensive scenario, Tianjin will realize the terminal peak carbon dioxide emissions in 2025, and its carbon emissions will be reduced by 85.1% compared with those under the baseline scenario in 2060, with a remarkable carbon emission reduction effect.