Nowcasting the next hour of residential load using boosting ensemble machines.

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Tác giả: Sadia Nishat Kazmi, Bin Li, Ali Muqtadir, Chen Songsong, Zhou Ying

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 003.209 Historical, geographic, persons treatment of forecasting as a discipline

Thông tin xuất bản: England : Scientific reports , 2025

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: NCBI

ID: 734109

Accurate residential load forecasting is a key to achieve grid stability and efficient energy management. However, it becomes challenging due to the non-linear and seasonally fluctuating energy usage of domestic users. Existing statistical and machine learning-based forecasting models struggle to produce accurate forecasts due to dynamic and stochastic user behaviors for energy usage. On the other hand, pairwise ensemble methods can achieve higher forecasting accuracy in short-term load forecasting, but are not scalable and face generalization issues that often lead to overfitting and complexity in managing multivariate data. To address these limitations, we propose to integrate LightGBM, XGBoost and CatBoost models to systematically address the limitations of existing ensemble-based forecasting models. This integration aims to leverage the strengths of each ensemble method, where LightGBM handles generalization across multiple sites, XGBoost avoids overfitting the model, and CatBoost effectively manages categorical features. We implement our proposed model using a real-world, publicly available dataset for 13 residential locations in North America and Europe. The proposed model outperforms other state-of-the-art algorithms with the lowest root mean squared logarithmic error (RMSLE) values of 0.1898, while the coefficient of determination (R
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