OBJECTIVE: To reveal the changing pattern of anthropometry of middle-aged adults aged 40-59 in China from 2000-2020, and to predict the development trend in the next decade, to provide a reference basis for curbing the prevalence of overweight and obesity in them. METHODS: A grey GM(1,1) prediction model was established for the cross-sectional data on anthropometric measures of 422,851 adults obtained from five series of national physical fitness surveillance in China. RESULTS: 1) From 2000 to 2020, all anthropometric indicators of middle-aged people aged 40-59 years in China maintained growth, with waist circumference increasing at the highest rate, weight at the second highest rate, and height at the slowest rate
2) Overweight and obesity rates are increasing rapidly, with an average annual increase of 0.37 percentage points and 0.30 percentage points, with a greater increase for men than for women. CONCLUSION: Without stronger interventions, overweight and obesity rates among middle-aged adults are likely to continue to increase in the future, and coordinated efforts are needed to slow down the obesity epidemic and improve the physical health of middle-aged adults.