Development and validation of a clinical-friendly model for predicting 180-day mortality in the older with community-acquired pneumonia.

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Tác giả: Lixue Huang, Wenshu Jiao, Jin Jin, Yanming Li, Xunliang Tong, Mengyuan Wang, Yuanqi Wang, Bingxuan Weng, Xuefeng Zhong

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 338.9 Economic development and growth

Thông tin xuất bản: England : BMC geriatrics , 2025

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: NCBI

ID: 743816

OBJECTIVE: Currently, there is no effective way to identify older patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) at high risk of long-term death. We aimed to develop and validate a pneumonia scoring system to predict 180-day mortality, and compare its performance with the commonly used CURB-65 score. METHODS: The prospective cohort study enrolled patients aged 65 years and older with CAP from 10 medical centers in China between April 2021 and December 2023. The primary outcome was 180-day mortality. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop a new pneumonia scoring system, and the area under the time-dependent curve (AUC) was used to assess its discriminatory power. Internal validation was performed using both bootstrap resampling and 10-fold cross-validation. The model was visualized by a nomogram and a questionnaire. The optimal cutoff value of the nomogram was determined based on the maximum Youden index for the 180-day mortality prediction, dividing patients into high- and low-risk groups. The performance of model in predicting both short- and long-term mortality was compared with CURB-65 using AUC, sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value and positive predictive value. RESULTS: A total of 619 patients, with a median age of 78 years (IQR: 70.5-85.0), were included in the analysis. The 180-day mortality was 6.9%. The model was developed using six variables, including age, the ratio of pulse oximetry saturation (SpO CONCLUSIONS: This study developed and validated a prediction model for long-term mortality in older patients with CAP, showing better discriminatory power and accuracy over CURB-65.
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