BACKGROUND: A user-friendly tool that integrates key clinical variables to estimate prognosis in aortic regurgitation is lacking. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram-based score to predict survival and identify high-risk patients for timely aortic valve surgery referral. METHODS AND RESULTS: From 2008 to 2022, 1229 patients (derivation data set: 764 Taiwanese
validation data set: 465 Japanese
age: 64±17 years) with isolated chronic moderately severe to severe aortic regurgitation from 3 centers were included. All echocardiograms were reviewed de novo. At a median follow-up of 5.0 (interquartile range, 2.2-8.2) years, 204 all-cause deaths occurred and 247 underwent aortic valve surgery within 3 months. In multivariable analysis, age ( CONCLUSIONS: The ARISE score (https://arise-score.vercel.app/), which includes guideline-recommended parameters, effectively predicts survival in patients with aortic regurgitation. It may facilitate shared decision-making between the heart team and patients.